Mood
India
The market found its footing
The Nifty 500 closed +1.58% on the day and +2.9% over the week. Breadth was narrow: 196 stocks rose and 925 fell. The Market Mood Index reads 50, in the greed zone (up from 34 a week ago). Our trend model calls the phase “Transitional”.
Where the indices stand
| Index | Close | Day | Week | Month | This year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,441 | +1.68% | +3.0% | +3.6% | -10.3% |
| Nifty 500 | 22,241 | +1.58% | +2.9% | +0.8% | -6.8% |
| Nifty Bank | 55,002 | +0.58% | +1.2% | +0.7% | -7.7% |
| Midcap 150 | 21,311 | +1.25% | +2.4% | -2.5% | -4.3% |
| Smallcap 250 | 16,991 | +1.35% | +2.5% | -4.5% | +1.8% |
Market Mood Index
A move from fear towards greed is usually more useful than the level itself.
How broad is the move?
17% of stocks trade above their 50-day average and 32% above their 200-day average. 22 stocks made a new 52-week high and 88 a new 52-week low. Watch whether the share above the 50-day line can climb back over 50%: that is usually the first sign of a broad recovery.
Money flows
Foreign investors (FII) were net buyers at +₹3,115 cr in the last session, and domestic institutions (DII) net sellers at −₹392 cr. Over five sessions: FII +₹10,882 cr, DII +₹108 cr. Month to date: FII +₹3,115 cr, DII −₹392 cr.
FII net buying in the cash market, last 20 sessions
Sector scoreboard
Nifty Infrastructure led the week (+5.4%), followed by Nifty Healthcare (+5.2%). Nifty Cement was the weakest (-0.8%).
Leading sectors this week
| Sector index | Day | Week | Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty Infrastructure | +3.70% | +5.4% | +4.5% |
| Nifty Healthcare | +0.18% | +5.2% | +2.1% |
| Nifty Pharma | -0.07% | +5.2% | +2.5% |
| Nifty CPSE | +2.66% | +5.1% | -0.2% |
| Nifty Consumer Durables | +2.70% | +4.7% | -3.2% |
Lagging sectors this week
| Sector index | Day | Week | Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty Cement | +2.92% | -0.8% | -2.1% |
| Nifty IT | -0.50% | +0.5% | +17.1% |
| Nifty Private Bank | -0.14% | +0.7% | +1.2% |
| Nifty Bank | +0.58% | +1.2% | +0.7% |
| Nifty Financial Services | +0.76% | +1.8% | +1.0% |
Is the market cheap or expensive?
The Nifty 50 trades at 19.4 times trailing earnings, higher than 1% of daily readings over the past 10 years (median 23.3). Valuations are below their usual range, which has tended to cushion long-term returns.
What to watch
- Breadth: can the share of stocks above their 50-day average (17%) get back above 50%?
- Distribution: 10 heavy-volume down days in the last 25 sessions; more would point to institutions selling into strength.
- Volatility: India VIX at 15.5; a move above 18 has usually come with sharper swings.
- Flows: whether FII buying continues for a second week.
USA
Where the market stands
- Market phase: Holding. The Nasdaq 100 is 6.2% above its 200-day average.
- Volatility is low (28th percentile); participation is narrowing.
- 43% of stocks are above their 50-day average, against 43% a week ago.
- Nasdaq 100: −3.5% today, −2.0% this week, −6.9% this month.
The index scoreboard
- Nasdaq 100: Today −3.5%, Week −2.0%, Month −6.9%
- S&P 500: Today −1.8%, Week −0.6%, Month −1.1%
- Dow Jones 30: Today −1.1%, Week −0.9%, Month +1.7%
- Nasdaq Composite: Today −2.9%, Week −2.0%, Month −5.3%
- S&P MidCap 400: Today −1.2%, Week +1.3%, Month +0.8%
- S&P SmallCap 600: Today −1.2%, Week +1.5%, Month +2.4%
Large, mid and small caps: three months
- S&P 500: −0.3% (3 months)
- S&P MidCap 400: −3.6% (3 months)
- S&P SmallCap 600: −5.1% (3 months)
- Russell 2000: −5.7% (3 months)
43% of stocks above their 50-day average
- 43% of stocks are above their 50-day average (a week ago: 43%).
- 50% are above their 200-day average.
- Today 737 stocks rose and 683 fell; 47 made 52-week highs and 5 made 52-week lows.
VIX at 19.4
- VIX is 19.4, against 19.5 a week ago.
- Over ten years VIX closed above 20 on 31% of days and above 30 on 6%; its median was 17.0.
- That is the 66th percentile of the last ten years; the one-year range is 13.5 to 31.0.
For education and information only, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are computed from end-of-day market data and may contain errors; check before acting. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Comments
Post a Comment